{
  "current": {
    "month": "October 2026",
    "rfi": 124.16,
    "mma3": 122.23,
    "baseline": 100,
    "min": 100.0,
    "max": 124.16,
    "asOf": "2026-10-08",
    "theme": "Competing Priorities. Goldman Sachs's 2026 Retirement Survey & Insights Report has put a number on what retirees and their adult children have been feeling for years: household competing priorities (monthly expenses, caregiving, debt, housing) are now the single largest barrier to retirement saving — outranking plan access or participation. Four categories moved up by 3+ intensity points this month on the same mechanism."
  },
  "history": [
    {
      "m": "Jul '25",
      "rfi": 104.1,
      "drv": "Record monthly equity outflow 2.30% (DALBAR)"
    },
    {
      "m": "Aug '25",
      "rfi": 103.46,
      "drv": "Summer cooling; markets stabilizing."
    },
    {
      "m": "Sep '25",
      "rfi": 101.75,
      "drv": "Pre-COLA quiet period."
    },
    {
      "m": "Oct '25",
      "rfi": 102.05,
      "drv": "COLA 2.4%; Medicare open enrollment opens."
    },
    {
      "m": "Nov '25",
      "rfi": 100.82,
      "drv": "Holiday quiet period."
    },
    {
      "m": "Dec '25",
      "rfi": 100.0,
      "drv": "Baseline anchor — all categories = 100."
    },
    {
      "m": "Jan '26",
      "rfi": 103.55,
      "drv": "New-year tax-planning anxiety."
    },
    {
      "m": "Feb '26",
      "rfi": 111.96,
      "drv": "CBO baseline; KFF healthcare release."
    },
    {
      "m": "Mar '26",
      "rfi": 114.26,
      "drv": "VIX peak 31.05 Mar 27 (Iran conflict)."
    },
    {
      "m": "Apr '26",
      "rfi": 116.79,
      "drv": "EBRI 2026 RCS: confidence lowest since 2017."
    },
    {
      "m": "May '26",
      "rfi": 116.19,
      "drv": "Final pre-launch calibration; markets recover."
    },
    {
      "m": "Jun '26",
      "rfi": 119.74,
      "drv": "Inaugural public launch. UMich sentiment 44.8 record low."
    },
    {
      "m": "Jul '26",
      "rfi": 121.7,
      "drv": "2026 SS Trustees Report + Vanguard median $44K. 13-month high."
    },
    {
      "m": "Aug '26",
      "rfi": 120.71,
      "drv": "First cooling. CPI 3.5% (from 4.2%). UMich sentiment 55.2 (+11.5%)."
    },
    {
      "m": "Sep '26",
      "rfi": 121.83,
      "drv": "New all-time high. Warsh hawkish (Jackson Hole), AAIC p-tau217 blood test, savings rate 5.2%→3.7%. Cognitive +8, Market Vol +8."
    },
    {
      "m": "Oct '26",
      "rfi": 124.16,
      "drv": "New all-time high. Competing Priorities. Goldman: savings momentum 55%→39%, 66% expect retirement delay. Fed hiked (first since 2023). UMich 48.1 (−6.3%). Outliving +7, Inflation +6, Market Vol +4, Family +4."
    }
  ],
  "categories": [
    {
      "name": "Healthcare & Long-Term Care Costs",
      "w": 24,
      "i": 131,
      "delta": 1
    },
    {
      "name": "Outliving Savings / Longevity Risk",
      "w": 19,
      "i": 128,
      "delta": 7
    },
    {
      "name": "Social Security & Pension Insolvency",
      "w": 17,
      "i": 144,
      "delta": -2
    },
    {
      "name": "Inflation & Rising Everyday Costs",
      "w": 11,
      "i": 114,
      "delta": 6
    },
    {
      "name": "Cognitive Decline / Loss of Independence",
      "w": 7,
      "i": 106,
      "delta": -2
    },
    {
      "name": "Market Volatility & Sequence-of-Returns",
      "w": 6,
      "i": 112,
      "delta": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Loss of Purpose / Identity Crisis",
      "w": 5,
      "i": 100,
      "delta": 0
    },
    {
      "name": "Housing Affordability & Maintenance",
      "w": 4,
      "i": 115,
      "delta": 3
    },
    {
      "name": "Family Caregiving Burdens & Isolation",
      "w": 4,
      "i": 110,
      "delta": 4
    },
    {
      "name": "Taxes & Regulatory Changes",
      "w": 3,
      "i": 108,
      "delta": 2
    }
  ],
  "context": {
    "vix": 16.5,
    "umichSentiment": 48.1,
    "umichSentimentNote": "fell 6.3% month-over-month, historically weak",
    "yearAheadInflation": 4.6,
    "longRunInflation": 3.3,
    "cpiHeadline": 3.4,
    "cpiCore": 2.5,
    "fedFundsUpper": 4.0,
    "mortgage30yr": 7.5,
    "personalSavingsRate": 3.7,
    "ssDepletionYQ": "Q4 2032",
    "ssBenefitsPayable": 78,
    "vanguardMedian401k": 44115,
    "vanguardAvg401k": 167970,
    "fidelityHealthCareCouple": 345000,
    "competingPriorities": "Household costs, caregiving, debt, and housing are the largest barrier to retirement saving.",
    "goldmanSavingsMomentumPrior": 55,
    "goldmanSavingsMomentumCurrent": 39,
    "goldmanExpectRetirementDelay": 66,
    "goldmanSupportingFamily": 62
  },
  "positioning": {
    "primary": "A monthly meta-analysis and sentiment map of retiree fear.",
    "metaAnalysis": "A monthly meta-analysis of retirement research — synthesizing institutional surveys, news and social engagement, and event triggers into one sentiment reading.",
    "sentimentMap": "A live sentiment map of retiree fear — showing which of ten categories are running hot, which are cooling, and where the population's attention is concentrated this month."
  }
}