{
  "current": {
    "month": "July 2026",
    "rfi": 121.70,
    "mma3": 119.21,
    "baseline": 100,
    "min": 100.0,
    "max": 121.70,
    "asOf": "2026-07-02",
    "theme": "The authoritative anchors just moved wrong."
  },
  "history": [
    { "m": "Jun 2025", "rfi": 104.35, "drv": "SS Trustees Report: depletion 2033, ~23% cuts." },
    { "m": "Jul 2025", "rfi": 104.10, "drv": "Record monthly equity outflow rate 2.30% (DALBAR)." },
    { "m": "Aug 2025", "rfi": 103.46, "drv": "Summer cooling; markets stabilizing." },
    { "m": "Sep 2025", "rfi": 101.75, "drv": "Pre-COLA quiet period." },
    { "m": "Oct 2025", "rfi": 102.05, "drv": "COLA announced 2.4%; Medicare open enrollment opens." },
    { "m": "Nov 2025", "rfi": 100.82, "drv": "Holiday quiet period." },
    { "m": "Dec 2025", "rfi": 100.00, "drv": "BASELINE ANCHOR MONTH — all categories = 100." },
    { "m": "Jan 2026", "rfi": 103.55, "drv": "New-year tax-planning anxiety; Vanguard report." },
    { "m": "Feb 2026", "rfi": 111.96, "drv": "CBO baseline; KFF healthcare release." },
    { "m": "Mar 2026", "rfi": 114.26, "drv": "VIX peak 31.05 on Mar 27 (Iran conflict)." },
    { "m": "Apr 2026", "rfi": 116.79, "drv": "EBRI 2026 RCS: confidence at lowest since 2017." },
    { "m": "May 2026", "rfi": 116.19, "drv": "Final pre-launch calibration; markets recover." },
    { "m": "Jun 2026", "rfi": 119.74, "drv": "INAUGURAL PUBLIC READING. UMich sentiment 44.8 record low; Inflation +12, SS +7." },
    { "m": "Jul 2026", "rfi": 121.70, "drv": "2026 SS Trustees Report + Vanguard median $44K balance land in June. SS +8, Outliving +6." }
  ],
  "categories": [
    { "name": "Healthcare & Long-Term Care Costs", "w": 24, "i": 130, "delta": -2 },
    { "name": "Outliving Savings / Longevity Risk", "w": 19, "i": 118, "delta": 6 },
    { "name": "Social Security & Pension Insolvency", "w": 17, "i": 150, "delta": 8 },
    { "name": "Inflation & Rising Everyday Costs", "w": 11, "i": 118, "delta": -4 },
    { "name": "Cognitive Decline / Loss of Independence", "w": 7, "i": 100, "delta": 0 },
    { "name": "Market Volatility & Sequence-of-Returns", "w": 6, "i": 96, "delta": 4 },
    { "name": "Loss of Purpose / Identity Crisis", "w": 5, "i": 100, "delta": 0 },
    { "name": "Housing Affordability & Maintenance", "w": 4, "i": 110, "delta": 2 },
    { "name": "Family Caregiving Burdens & Isolation", "w": 4, "i": 105, "delta": 0 },
    { "name": "Taxes & Regulatory Changes", "w": 3, "i": 108, "delta": 2 }
  ],
  "context": {
    "vix": 16.5,
    "umichSentiment": 49.5,
    "umichSentimentNote": "rebound from May's 44.8 record low (+10.5%), still historically weak",
    "yearAheadInflation": 4.6,
    "longRunInflation": 3.3,
    "cpiHeadline": 4.2,
    "cpiCore": 2.9,
    "fedFundsUpper": 3.75,
    "ssDepletionYQ": "Q4 2032",
    "ssBenefitsPayable": 78,
    "vanguardMedian401k": 44115,
    "vanguardAvg401k": 167970,
    "fidelityHealthCareCouple": 345000
  },
  "positioning": {
    "primary": "The first monthly measure of what U.S. retirees actually fear.",
    "metaAnalysis": "A monthly meta-analysis of retirement research — synthesizing institutional surveys, news and social engagement, and event triggers into one sentiment reading.",
    "sentimentMap": "A live sentiment map of retiree fear — showing which of ten categories are running hot, which are cooling, and where the population's attention is concentrated this month."
  }
}